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Tornado outbreak 5/22-27th
#1
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This is in West central Kansas on Sunday. Sunday isn't the main event, but still worth watching.  I guess I'll have to upload graphics one at a time since the tinypic thing isn't working very well at the moment. Monday has better chances, but Tuesday looks to be the main event. We will have dew points in the 70's, An explosive amount of CAPE(instability), plenty of low level shear. I've been waiting for a system like this all spring. Oklahoma and Kansas will see the brunt of this system as it moves through the area.  I will update this Sunday morning hopefully and  will have a much clearer picture then. I will also upload the other soundings for Monday and Tuesday.
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#2
Yay the first tornado thread from our storm chaser!! Keep us updated and stay safe!
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#3
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This is Monday afternoon(1 pm) in Central Kansas.

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Tuesday evening in central Kansas (7 pm)

The timing could change or something else could. For now this looks like a sure thing. With all the cold we've had lately and all the rain, it wouldn't surprise me if this ends up being a very significant tornado outbreak over multiple days.
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#4
(05-19-2016, 02:39 PM)~mc~ Wrote: Yay the first tornado thread from our storm chaser!! Keep us updated and stay safe!

Will do. Hopefully I will get to go chase. Might be difficult with the kids being out of school for summer. Either way, I'll be watching.
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#5
So is this right by where you live?
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#6
(05-19-2016, 02:47 PM)~mc~ Wrote: So is this right by where you live?

The general area, yes.  I don't like chasing out of state. Takes me too far from my babies.
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#7
(05-19-2016, 02:48 PM)AmbitchN Wrote:
(05-19-2016, 02:47 PM)~mc~ Wrote: So is this right by where you live?

The general area, yes.  I don't like chasing out of state. Takes me too far from my babies.

Don't blame you for that.. I'd rather be close to home too! I think it would be kinda fun to storm chase. As long as I didn't get too close Chuckle
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#8
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Sunday
[Image: day5prob.gif?1463680489935]
Monday
  ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
  ACUS48 KWNS 190916
  SPC AC 190916

  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0416 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

  VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

  ...DISCUSSION...
  AN INCREASINGLY SEVERE-CONDUCIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
  WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY
  ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO
  SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGHING WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND
  NORTHWARD-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A PARTICULARLY
  MOISTURE-RICH/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
  SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF GRAPHICALLY DEPICTED SEVERE
  RISKS BEYOND MONDAY /DUE TO GREATER GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND
  MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES/...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
  THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
  CONUS.

  DAY 4/SUNDAY...A LEAD PORTION OF THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH IS LIKELY
  TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL HIGH
  PLAINS...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD. THE
  DAKOTAS/WESTERN NEB AND OTHER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
  APPEAR TO WARRANT A 15-PERCENT ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK NEAR AN
  ADVANCING FRONT AND A SHARPENING LEE TROUGH...WHILE OTHER SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING
  WESTERN OK AND WEST/NORTHWEST TX IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.

  DAY 5/MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS
  MN/IA...BUT A SOMEWHAT MORE CERTAIN SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS
  THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING PARTS OF KS/OK INTO NORTH/WEST TX
  NEAR THE DRYLINE.

  DAYS 6/7 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH
  DAYS...WITH PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS /KS-OK-NORTH TX/ TO
  LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS APPEARING MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE
  WEATHER PER LATEST GUIDANCE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST
  CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS ARE PLAUSIBLE ON BOTH DAYS AS FORECAST
  DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED.

  ..GUYER.. 05/19/2016




http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

I'm still waiting for them to issue a discussion on Tuesday. I imagine they will have that done at 1 am when they update SPC.
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#9
(05-19-2016, 02:50 PM)~mc~ Wrote:
(05-19-2016, 02:48 PM)AmbitchN Wrote:
(05-19-2016, 02:47 PM)~mc~ Wrote: So is this right by where you live?

The general area, yes.  I don't like chasing out of state. Takes me too far from my babies.

Don't blame you for that.. I'd rather be close to home too! I think it would be kinda fun to storm chase. As long as I didn't get too close  Chuckle

I've gotten too close before and probably wouldn't have realized if the cows weren't running away. Chuckle  I was too enthralled with the funnel I was watching to notice that my chasing partner and I were directly under an area of rotation. Thankfully it was very weak and no tornado actually formed there. It was scary none the less.
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#10
is this an every summer thing for where you live? are there any times that it is worse than others?
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