Welcome, Guest

 or  Register
NewsFeed

Hurricane Florence
#1
Do we have a thread devoted to Florence yet? If so, my apologies. If not, here goes...

I'm a survivor of "Superstorm Sandy" and sure as Hell don't want to go through it again!

Hurricane FLORENCE
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 06, 2018:

Location: 23.8°N 47.6°W
Maximum Winds: 100 kt  Gusts: 120 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 964 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

[Image: AL062018_5day_cone_no_line.png]

[Image: 06L_gefs_latest.png]

Maps, forecasts, models, wind speed, pressure, gusts, etc., etc., etc.:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

"Here Comes the Saharan Dust"

Normally, hundreds of millions of tons of dust are picked up from the deserts of Africa and blown across the Atlantic Ocean each year. That dust helps build beaches in the Caribbean and fertilizes soils in the Amazon. It affects air quality in North and South America. It likely plays a role in the suppression of hurricanes and the decline of coral reefs as well.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images...haran-dust
Reply Share
#2
Florence has a similar arrival schedule to the East Coast as Erin did in 2001 the days before and up to the morning of 9-11-01
Reply Share
#3
This is the storm to watch guys I feel its going to be a big one
Just let that shit go
Reply Share
#4
(09-06-2018, 09:31 AM)goddess101 Wrote: This is the storm to watch guys I feel its going to be a big one

Might be. Or it could be a big wake up call if the models posted in OP are accurate.
Lower Frequencies on a Higher Plane
Reply Share
#5
[Image: two_atl_2d0.png]





The red X southeast of Florence will probably be named Helene by the weekend. This is another that could be a real threat to the US.
Reply Share
#6
[Image: 1r599OR.gif]

@mountain man I didn't mean to override your post above. But note the seperation of storms behind Florence!
Lower Frequencies on a Higher Plane
Aquarius, mountain man, SlowLoris  likes this!
Reply Share
#7
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

Vertical shear has increased since yesterday, which has caused a
degradation of Florence's structure and a decrease in its maximum
winds. The cloud-filled eye has been eroded over the past hour or
so, and the deep convection is no longer symmetric, with the
low-level circulation peeking out from under the higher clouds.
Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB have fallen to T5.0-5.5 (90-100
kt), while the objective numbers from UW-CIMSS support 70-90 kt.
The initial intensity is set at 90 kt, near the middle of this wide
range of estimates.

The intensity forecast has been somewhat of a self-defeating
prophecy due to the nuances of the environmental shear. Even though
Florence was able to rapidly intensify yesterday in an area just
south of a zone of strong shear, the hurricane's stronger-than-
expected intensity caused it to move more poleward, into that
stronger shear. Right now, shear analyses range anywhere from
25-30 kt, and the latest available guidance suggests that this
level of shear should continue for another 12-24 hours. As a
result, continued weakening is forecast over the next day or so.
After 36 hours, Florence is likely to encounter an upper-level
environment that is more conducive for reintensification. The NHC
forecast is adjusted downward toward the newest consensus aids,
especially during the first 48 hours, but it still shows Florence
reaching major hurricane strength again by days 4 and 5.

Florence's forward motion has slowed just a little to 9 kt toward
the northwest (315 degrees). A mid-level ridge is building to the
north, which is likely to cause the hurricane to turn westward by
36 hours, with that motion continuing through about day 3. After
that time, there is still considerable uncertainty in the evolution
of the steering pattern over the western Atlantic, especially on day
4. On one hand, the GFS and HWRF dig a strong shortwave trough over
Atlantic Canada by Monday, creating a break in the ridge which would
allow Florence to turn northwestward. On the other hand, the ECMWF
and UKMET both have weaker troughs and maintain stronger ridging
over the northwestern Atlantic, allowing Florence to maintain a
westward or west-northwestward course. All the models show a
mid-level high over the western Atlantic by Tuesday. Due to typical
biases among these models in the part of the Atlantic, we prefer to
be between the GFS and ECMWF solutions at this time, which places
the official NHC track forecast close to the TVCN multi-model
consensus and just north of HCCA.

There is still considerable model ensemble spread for Florence's
track beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time
ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts
Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of
Florence's eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane
will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday and portions of the U.S. East
Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 24.6N 48.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 25.2N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 25.6N 51.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 25.6N 52.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 25.7N 54.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.3N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 28.0N 59.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 29.5N 65.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
Aquarius  likes this!
Reply Share
#8
(09-06-2018, 08:00 AM)Mmmkay Ultra Wrote: Florence has a similar arrival schedule to the East Coast as Erin did in 2001 the days before and up to the morning of 9-11-01

She also has a similar track to Sandy so I understand Shore Skeptic's concern.
Florence was projected yesterday morning to be in Bermuda bu Sunday,now Tuesday and she has been downgraded.Still keeping an eye on her down here in Carolina.
This has been the strangest hurricane season I have ever seen.While we have had wetter than usual summer,none of it has been tropical. Meanwhile, we have storms heading for New England and Hawaii Scratchinghead
"Perhaps the greatest myth being purveyed,
is that myths are just myths." - Michael Tsarion

Reply Share
#9
Looks like she’s committed to the Eastern Seaboard

Stay informed
Reply Share
#10
(09-06-2018, 12:23 PM)MysticPizza Wrote:
(09-06-2018, 08:00 AM)Mmmkay Ultra Wrote: Florence has a similar arrival schedule to the East Coast as Erin did in 2001 the days before and up to the morning of 9-11-01

She also has a similar track to Sandy so I understand Shore Skeptic's concern.
Florence was projected yesterday morning to be in Bermuda bu Sunday,now Tuesday and she has been downgraded.Still keeping an eye on her down here in Carolina.
This has been the strangest hurricane season I have ever seen.While we have had wetter than usual summer,none of it has been tropical. Meanwhile, we have storms heading for New England and Hawaii  Scratchinghead


I wouldn't be surprised if one of these storms at a minimum brushes Cape Hatteras. The Cape sticks out there a long way and seems to be a hurricane magnet.
Reply Share