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Election Thread: predictions, analysis for mid-terms[MERGED]
#1
Question 
Seeing the good work of so many others, particularly @DaJavoo and @Mike Ehrmantraut, this thread is being offered as a starting point to accumulate mid term information on particular states, specifically swing and battle ground states.  

I will use information posted by Larry Schweikart https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart

He specializes in analyzing votes that are already cast, such as Early Voting (EV) and Absentee Voting (AV) instead of using polls, which determine what may happen while ignoring what has happened.  


For the moment, the first state analyzed is Florida.  As of this morning, looks like Florida voters are leaning heavily in the Republican direction.  


"GOP maintains a 3% lead even through "early voting" which Ds usually dominate."
https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/stat...3233383426

Also from Larry Schweikart:
  • Absentee Ballot - Rs +65,145
  • In-Person Early Voting - Rs +10,531
  • Combined Early voting - Rs +75,676


As may be seen, the data shows that cast votes already have Republicans leading in the state with 75K votes in a combination of AV and EV.  As a whole, Republicans continue to lead in absentee voting (an expected event) but are now ahead in the early walk-in vote.

This is an usual situation since political history shows that Democrats tend to lead in the early voting premise. The natural political course is that Democrats tend to dominate the EV, often surpassing the Republican vote in short order.  But due to several factors, which includes a very energized Republican base and strong economy that is showing its presence in the Floridian checkbook, Republicans are ahead in the early vote in what some consider to a be "first time" event for the state.  

" The blue wave remains mostly a mirage. More Republicans are "bringing it home" so far, in the words of Democratic candidate for governor Andrew Gillum.  Typically, the GOP has led from the start in mail ballots, and it edged ahead of the Democrats in early voting Thursday for the first time as several more GOP counties began early voting...

As of Friday, 2,037,610 ballots had been counted.  Of that total, 43 percent were cast by Republicans (869,649) and 40 percent by Democrats (808,200). That's a successful formula for Republicans in Florida, a deep purple state with a long history of tight elections and sluggish Democratic turnouts in midterms."
(https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politic...advantage/)


Multiple bellwether counties are collaborating data in their own data analysis.  Volusa County is indicating a strong Republican preference, while Pinellas county shows a strong shift from being a previous Democrat-held stronghold to a possible swing county.  Lee county is a GOP stronghold which is already indicating a very strong turnout, and could be a reflection of the panhandle area.

"Bellwether Volusa County FL (absentee & early combined)...Rs 53.9%...Ds 46.0%...Rs led early voting on the first day 52.5-47.5%"
"Here's another indicator of how bad things are for Ds in FL: Pinellas, which Zero won by 10: Rs 38,562 (32%)...Ds 41,066 (35%)"
"More FL by Freeper "Kabar": Lee County in Southwest Florida looks like a bellwether of a strong GOP turnout. The Fort Myers area went over 121,000 ballots cast Thursday (a 27 percent turnout so far) and twice as many Republicans have voted so far as have Democrats."


Further complicating Democrat hopes are accusations at the Federal level of bribery and corruption by prospective Democrat candidate for governor, Andrew Gillium.  

Despite Mainstream Media repetitively highlighting RCP polls showing Gillium in a significant lead (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6518.html), actual polling does not demonstrate this. If anything, the above information should clearly exhibit that the turnout for Republicans is running away with the state, even at this early junctions.  

Add into the mix the fact that the Florida Panhandle, recently devastated by Category 5 hurricane, Michael, has yet to vote en mass.  The Panhandle is a recognized GOP stronghold, over 30 counties strong that solidly helped swing Florida into the Republican win column in the 2016 Presidential Election.  With less than 10% of the area having voted, it is estimated that many will vote on Election day proper, meaning another potential surge in Republican votes.

With indications that Independents are voting somewhere between 2-1, or even 3-1, Republican over Democrat, it seems that any chances for the Democrats to quickly recover are evaporating at an alarming pace.  This is detrimental to the Democrat party as more and more stories indicate people are voting straight ticket.

As stated by Schweikart himself, "The only way Gillum's Island wins the FL governorship is if he runs with Mary Ann (Dawn Wells)."

And data apparently shows that the rest of the races may follow suit.


Conclusion:

The predictions call for Republican wins in numerous seats

Rick Scott ® should beat out incumbent Nelson (D) though the race is being called a toss-up, evidence is indicating the contrary.
DeSantis ® should beat Gillium (D).
Numerous house seats in play, though it is believed this early on that Florida will retain a Republican edge, though numbers may dwindle on the Republican side.
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#2
(10-28-2018, 02:40 PM)The Order of Chaos Wrote: Seeing the good work of so many others, particularly @DaJavoo and @Mike Ehrmantraut, this thread is being offered as a starting point to accumulate mid term information on particular states, specifically swing and battle ground states.  

I will use information posted by Larry Schweikart https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart

He specializes in analyzing votes that are already cast, such as Early Voting (EV) and Absentee Voting (AV) instead of using polls, which determine what may happen while ignoring what has happened.  


For the moment, the first state analyzed is Florida.  As of this morning, looks like Florida voters are leaning heavily in the Republican direction.  


"GOP maintains a 3% lead even through "early voting" which Ds usually dominate."
https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/stat...3233383426

Also from Larry Schweikart:
  • Absentee Ballot - Rs +65,145
  • In-Person Early Voting - Rs +10,531
  • Combined Early voting - Rs +75,676


As may be seen, the data shows that cast votes already have Republicans leading in the state with 75K votes in a combination of AV and EV.  As a whole, Republicans continue to lead in absentee voting (an expected event) but are now ahead in the early walk-in vote.

This is an usual situation since political history shows that Democrats tend to lead in the early voting premise. The natural political course is that Democrats tend to dominate the EV, often surpassing the Republican vote in short order.  But due to several factors, which includes a very energized Republican base and strong economy that is showing its presence in the Floridian checkbook, Republicans are ahead in the early vote in what some consider to a be "first time" event for the state.  

" The blue wave remains mostly a mirage. More Republicans are "bringing it home" so far, in the words of Democratic candidate for governor Andrew Gillum.  Typically, the GOP has led from the start in mail ballots, and it edged ahead of the Democrats in early voting Thursday for the first time as several more GOP counties began early voting...

As of Friday, 2,037,610 ballots had been counted.  Of that total, 43 percent were cast by Republicans (869,649) and 40 percent by Democrats (808,200). That's a successful formula for Republicans in Florida, a deep purple state with a long history of tight elections and sluggish Democratic turnouts in midterms."
(https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politic...advantage/)


Multiple bellwether counties are collaborating data in their own data analysis.  Volusa County is indicating a strong Republican preference, while Pinellas county shows a strong shift from being a previous Democrat-held stronghold to a possible swing county.  Lee county is a GOP stronghold which is already indicating a very strong turnout, and could be a reflection of the panhandle area.

"Bellwether Volusa County FL (absentee & early combined)...Rs 53.9%...Ds 46.0%...Rs led early voting on the first day 52.5-47.5%"
"Here's another indicator of how bad things are for Ds in FL: Pinellas, which Zero won by 10: Rs 38,562 (32%)...Ds 41,066 (35%)"
"More FL by Freeper "Kabar": Lee County in Southwest Florida looks like a bellwether of a strong GOP turnout. The Fort Myers area went over 121,000 ballots cast Thursday (a 27 percent turnout so far) and twice as many Republicans have voted so far as have Democrats."


Further complicating Democrat hopes are accusations at the Federal level of bribery and corruption by prospective Democrat candidate for governor, Andrew Gillium.  

Despite Mainstream Media repetitively highlighting RCP polls showing Gillium in a significant lead (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6518.html), actual polling does not demonstrate this. If anything, the above information should clearly exhibit that the turnout for Republicans is running away with the state, even at this early junctions.  

Add into the mix the fact that the Florida Panhandle, recently devastated by Category 5 hurricane, Michael, has yet to vote en mass.  The Panhandle is a recognized GOP stronghold, over 30 counties strong that solidly helped swing Florida into the Republican win column in the 2016 Presidential Election.  With less than 10% of the area having voted, it is estimated that many will vote on Election day proper, meaning another potential surge in Republican votes.

With indications that Independents are voting somewhere between 2-1, or even 3-1, Republican over Democrat, it seems that any chances for the Democrats to quickly recover are evaporating at an alarming pace.  This is detrimental to the Democrat party as more and more stories indicate people are voting straight ticket.

As stated by Schweikart himself, "The only way Gillum's Island wins the FL governorship is if he runs with Mary Ann (Dawn Wells)."

And data apparently shows that the rest of the races may follow suit.


Conclusion:

The predictions call for Republican wins in numerous seats

Rick Scott ® should beat out incumbent Nelson (D) though the race is being called a toss-up, evidence is indicating the contrary.
DeSantis ® should beat Gillium (D).
Numerous house seats in play, though it is believed this early on that Florida will retain a Republican edge, though numbers may dwindle on the Republican side.
WE voted today, Sunday and there were about 30 in front of us. This is end week 1 of early voting. I'm gonna say that more are awake....
Texas, let's go!!!
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#3
(10-28-2018, 05:36 PM)Commandante Frio Wrote:
(10-28-2018, 02:40 PM)The Order of Chaos Wrote: Seeing the good work of so many others, particularly @DaJavoo and @Mike Ehrmantraut, this thread is being offered as a starting point to accumulate mid term information on particular states, specifically swing and battle ground states.  

I will use information posted by Larry Schweikart https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart

He specializes in analyzing votes that are already cast, such as Early Voting (EV) and Absentee Voting (AV) instead of using polls, which determine what may happen while ignoring what has happened.  

....
WE voted today, Sunday and there were about 30 in front of us. This is end week 1 of early voting.  I'm gonna say that more are awake....
Texas, let's go!!!

Well done, Commandante!  Yeah3
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#4
I'll be honest, I have never voted in my life until last Friday. Why? Well I was one of those "our votes don't matter, it's rigged. yadda. yadda" people.

That changed when Trump won and every poll out there had Hillary as the clear winner. Actually I had intended on registering so I could vote for Trump but due to some issues I missed the deadline by one day. Oh well, I still went ahead and finally registered to vote after 48 years.

I'm glad I did. It gave me great joy to cast a vote for Ted Cruz on Friday.

This punk ass white Obama 2.0 Beto jerkoff has got to loose. Texas depends on it and I also believe Our Country depends on him loosing the mid-terms.

Like Frio said.. Come on Texas!

We can send that pencil neck commie spaz packing.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's Over Folks
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#5
(10-28-2018, 08:08 PM)Road Glide Wrote: I'll be honest, I have never voted in my life until last Friday.  Why?  Well I was one of those "our votes don't matter, it's rigged. yadda. yadda" people.

That changed when Trump won and every poll out there had Hillary as the clear winner.  Actually I had intended on registering so I could vote for Trump but due to some issues I missed the deadline by one day.  Oh well, I still went ahead and finally registered to vote after 48 years.

I'm glad I did.  It gave me great joy to cast a vote for Ted Cruz on Friday.

This punk ass white Obama 2.0 Beto jerkoff has got to loose.  Texas depends on it and I also believe Our Country depends on him loosing the mid-terms.

Like Frio said..  Come on Texas!

We can send that pencil neck commie spaz packing.

Well said, Road Glide! Cmicsfee
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#6
(10-28-2018, 02:40 PM)The Order of Chaos Wrote: Seeing the good work of so many others, particularly @DaJavoo and @Mike Ehrmantraut, this thread is being offered as a starting point to accumulate mid term information on particular states, specifically swing and battle ground states.  

I will use information posted by Larry Schweikart https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart

He specializes in analyzing votes that are already cast, such as Early Voting (EV) and Absentee Voting (AV) instead of using polls, which determine what may happen while ignoring what has happened.  


For the moment, the first state analyzed is Florida.  As of this morning, looks like Florida voters are leaning heavily in the Republican direction.  


"GOP maintains a 3% lead even through "early voting" which Ds usually dominate."
https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/stat...3233383426

Also from Larry Schweikart:
  • Absentee Ballot - Rs +65,145
  • In-Person Early Voting - Rs +10,531
  • Combined Early voting - Rs +75,676


As may be seen, the data shows that cast votes already have Republicans leading in the state with 75K votes in a combination of AV and EV.  As a whole, Republicans continue to lead in absentee voting (an expected event) but are now ahead in the early walk-in vote.

This is an usual situation since political history shows that Democrats tend to lead in the early voting premise. The natural political course is that Democrats tend to dominate the EV, often surpassing the Republican vote in short order.  But due to several factors, which includes a very energized Republican base and strong economy that is showing its presence in the Floridian checkbook, Republicans are ahead in the early vote in what some consider to a be "first time" event for the state.  

" The blue wave remains mostly a mirage. More Republicans are "bringing it home" so far, in the words of Democratic candidate for governor Andrew Gillum.  Typically, the GOP has led from the start in mail ballots, and it edged ahead of the Democrats in early voting Thursday for the first time as several more GOP counties began early voting...

As of Friday, 2,037,610 ballots had been counted.  Of that total, 43 percent were cast by Republicans (869,649) and 40 percent by Democrats (808,200). That's a successful formula for Republicans in Florida, a deep purple state with a long history of tight elections and sluggish Democratic turnouts in midterms."
(https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politic...advantage/)


Multiple bellwether counties are collaborating data in their own data analysis.  Volusa County is indicating a strong Republican preference, while Pinellas county shows a strong shift from being a previous Democrat-held stronghold to a possible swing county.  Lee county is a GOP stronghold which is already indicating a very strong turnout, and could be a reflection of the panhandle area.

"Bellwether Volusa County FL (absentee & early combined)...Rs 53.9%...Ds 46.0%...Rs led early voting on the first day 52.5-47.5%"
"Here's another indicator of how bad things are for Ds in FL: Pinellas, which Zero won by 10: Rs 38,562 (32%)...Ds 41,066 (35%)"
"More FL by Freeper "Kabar": Lee County in Southwest Florida looks like a bellwether of a strong GOP turnout. The Fort Myers area went over 121,000 ballots cast Thursday (a 27 percent turnout so far) and twice as many Republicans have voted so far as have Democrats."


Further complicating Democrat hopes are accusations at the Federal level of bribery and corruption by prospective Democrat candidate for governor, Andrew Gillium.  

Despite Mainstream Media repetitively highlighting RCP polls showing Gillium in a significant lead (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6518.html), actual polling does not demonstrate this. If anything, the above information should clearly exhibit that the turnout for Republicans is running away with the state, even at this early junctions.  

Add into the mix the fact that the Florida Panhandle, recently devastated by Category 5 hurricane, Michael, has yet to vote en mass.  The Panhandle is a recognized GOP stronghold, over 30 counties strong that solidly helped swing Florida into the Republican win column in the 2016 Presidential Election.  With less than 10% of the area having voted, it is estimated that many will vote on Election day proper, meaning another potential surge in Republican votes.

With indications that Independents are voting somewhere between 2-1, or even 3-1, Republican over Democrat, it seems that any chances for the Democrats to quickly recover are evaporating at an alarming pace.  This is detrimental to the Democrat party as more and more stories indicate people are voting straight ticket.

As stated by Schweikart himself, "The only way Gillum's Island wins the FL governorship is if he runs with Mary Ann (Dawn Wells)."

And data apparently shows that the rest of the races may follow suit.


Conclusion:

The predictions call for Republican wins in numerous seats

Rick Scott ® should beat out incumbent Nelson (D) though the race is being called a toss-up, evidence is indicating the contrary.
DeSantis ® should beat Gillium (D).
Numerous house seats in play, though it is believed this early on that Florida will retain a Republican edge, though numbers may dwindle on the Republican side.

If anything i predict turn out is going be huge compared to previous years
Join my conspiracy discord chat server: https://discordapp.com/invite/N3dEb8J (no registration needed)

Sorry if my English is bad not my 1st language. From Russia but half American, have been hear in America for over 8 years.
Фраера жадность сгубила. E-4 Mafia

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#7

Kyle@HNIJohnMiller

1) He’s providing the numbers and the data for why the GOP is about to win big in the midterms, and its all right and the numbers part of my brain says its right, but here’s why I believe the Dems are about to suffer an extinction level event on November 6th.
Forget Senate for a second.…

2) Because the Democrats had ONE JOB.

Don’t be crazy.

3) Seriously, that’s it. All they had to do was paint the right as crazy, and then just not be crazy themselves. Nice and simple. “Hey undecided voter. That guy is crazy about guns and talks about race all the time. We’re normal not offensive at all. Vote for us.”

4) Let me tell you a story of 2016, before election day where I wrote in “Fuck This 2016” on the presidential ballot then voted against every incumbent.

5) Boss throws on a Clinton rally on the computer. She was giving a speech, I had just abandoned support for Gary Johnson after he couldn’t name a world leader he respected, so I was back firmly in the undecided voter camp.

6) I’m typing away as we listen, and I say, “You know, I don’t really hear anything from her I find all that inspiring or appealing.”

“Oh, well, her message isn’t really MEANT for you.”


7) Full stop. The fuck does it mean her message isn’t meant for me? This is an election. The point is to sway as many voters into voting for you as possible in as many states as you can muster. It means stealing voters from your opponents, changing peoples minds.

8) At the VERY least it means gathering up as many undecided voters as possible. So what the hell does it mean her message wasn’t meant for me? Am I not an undecided voters potentially susceptible to persuasion?

9) So, fast forward to now. A McGrath rally where she’s gone full leftist because she’s speaking solely to her supporters and there’s NO social media or news presence to speak of, just a stream or two online that are unpromoted. Me again: “So what’s the appeal of her exactly?”

10) “Oh, she’s not trying to appeal to you.”

She’s not? So she’s looking to lose by 20% like the previous no name upstart liberal trying to knock out the incumbent Barr in 2016 did?

11) The left, they forgot how to not be crazy. They forgot how to appeal to anyone.

12) These are weaknesses that they cover with lies. But those lies are cracking. The New York Times’ live polls are literal bricks being thrown through the window of the Blue Wave narrative.

13) The people who were selling the idea of a blue wave from day one are the same people who proclaimed the economy would die under Trump, that we would be at war with North Korea on day one. Ridiculous lies that failed to pan out.

14) All they had to do to avoid that outcome was not be crazy. But they were crazy, so they imagined the most horrible things that could happen under anyone and went batshit insane with those ideas.

15) America, America likes a little bit of crazy. America likes Reality TV crazy, Jersey Housewives crazy. Loud and wild, but you know overall its scripted, there’s a pattern with rhyme and reason.

16) Trump is a little crazy. He’s going to say wild things. America likes someone who says wild things, but won’t cause mass uncertainty about the economy and about war.

17) America on the whole does not like widespread unrelenting crazy. We don’t like deranged homeless people accosting us on the street, the total feral unpredictability of full on crazy.

18) All Democrats had to do was not be the insane San Francisco homeless person shitting on the sidewalk in front of you with used rusty needles falling out of his pocket, exaggerate Trump’s crazy, and not be crazy in turn.

19) Democrats had the MSM working on portraying Trump as crazy, and it worked after a fashion, but they in turn had one job: don’t be crazy. That’s it.

20) They couldn’t help themselves. Batman Gambit after Batman Gambit, baited trap after baited trap, the left went more insane.

21) Why will the GOP win? Because Trump baited the left further into insanity, and now, no one in their right mind will vote Dem.
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#8
(10-29-2018, 07:22 AM)DaJavoo Wrote:
Kyle@HNIJohnMiller

1) He’s providing the numbers and the data for why the GOP is about to win big in the midterms, and its all right and the numbers part of my brain says its right, but here’s why I believe the Dems are about to suffer an extinction level event on November 6th.
Forget Senate for a second.…

2) Because the Democrats had ONE JOB.

Don’t be crazy.

3) Seriously, that’s it. All they had to do was paint the right as crazy, and then just not be crazy themselves. Nice and simple. “Hey undecided voter. That guy is crazy about guns and talks about race all the time. We’re normal not offensive at all. Vote for us.”

4) Let me tell you a story of 2016, before election day where I wrote in “Fuck This 2016” on the presidential ballot then voted against every incumbent.

5) Boss throws on a Clinton rally on the computer. She was giving a speech, I had just abandoned support for Gary Johnson after he couldn’t name a world leader he respected, so I was back firmly in the undecided voter camp.

6) I’m typing away as we listen, and I say, “You know, I don’t really hear anything from her I find all that inspiring or appealing.”

“Oh, well, her message isn’t really MEANT for you.”


7) Full stop. The fuck does it mean her message isn’t meant for me? This is an election. The point is to sway as many voters into voting for you as possible in as many states as you can muster. It means stealing voters from your opponents, changing peoples minds.

8) At the VERY least it means gathering up as many undecided voters as possible. So what the hell does it mean her message wasn’t meant for me? Am I not an undecided voters potentially susceptible to persuasion?

9) So, fast forward to now. A McGrath rally where she’s gone full leftist because she’s speaking solely to her supporters and there’s NO social media or news presence to speak of, just a stream or two online that are unpromoted. Me again: “So what’s the appeal of her exactly?”

10) “Oh, she’s not trying to appeal to you.”

She’s not? So she’s looking to lose by 20% like the previous no name upstart liberal trying to knock out the incumbent Barr in 2016 did?

11) The left, they forgot how to not be crazy. They forgot how to appeal to anyone.

12) These are weaknesses that they cover with lies. But those lies are cracking. The New York Times’ live polls are literal bricks being thrown through the window of the Blue Wave narrative.

13) The people who were selling the idea of a blue wave from day one are the same people who proclaimed the economy would die under Trump, that we would be at war with North Korea on day one. Ridiculous lies that failed to pan out.

14) All they had to do to avoid that outcome was not be crazy. But they were crazy, so they imagined the most horrible things that could happen under anyone and went batshit insane with those ideas.

15) America, America likes a little bit of crazy. America likes Reality TV crazy, Jersey Housewives crazy. Loud and wild, but you know overall its scripted, there’s a pattern with rhyme and reason.

16) Trump is a little crazy. He’s going to say wild things. America likes someone who says wild things, but won’t cause mass uncertainty about the economy and about war.

17) America on the whole does not like widespread unrelenting crazy. We don’t like deranged homeless people accosting us on the street, the total feral unpredictability of full on crazy.

18) All Democrats had to do was not be the insane San Francisco homeless person shitting on the sidewalk in front of you with used rusty needles falling out of his pocket, exaggerate Trump’s crazy, and not be crazy in turn.

19) Democrats had the MSM working on portraying Trump as crazy, and it worked after a fashion, but they in turn had one job: don’t be crazy. That’s it.

20) They couldn’t help themselves. Batman Gambit after Batman Gambit, baited trap after baited trap, the left went more insane.

21) Why will the GOP win? Because Trump baited the left further into insanity, and now, no one in their right mind will vote Dem.

Well said. The Left truly came unhinged in its search for power, for a place to return to back under the sun. And it's rather ironic that in their insanity, they still follow their Alinsky programming.

"We're insane, but we'll blame the Right of being the crazy ones...."
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#9
This mid-term is a very complicated election, but I will suggest Republican turnout
is going to have to be stronger than usual in order to overcome the Democrat early-voting machinations.
Early voting is a Democrat ploy that goes against the spirit of Election Day.
The Democratic Secretaries of State are all corrupt and push through many questionable
ballots without investigation. Republicans will have to turn out like they did in 2016. In some cases
recounts will be automatic or sued for. You have to force the Dems to investigate ballots with
threat of imprisonment, otherwise they prefer not to inspect anything. They will certify any
Democratic victory even if they know it is thousands of illegal votes.
Aquarius, The Order of Chaos, WNC  likes this!
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#10
I predict the new bosses will be just like the old bosses.

With about 99% confidence and a one percent margin of error.
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